Written by: Dave Colclough (2004-09-20 22:15:57)
The last couple of articles concerned pre-flop probabilities.
These are most relevant to NLH tournament play. This
is because most chip movement occurs pre-flop in NLH
tourneys, whereas, with Limit Hold 'em and Pot Limit
Omaha, most of the action takes place post flop. The
next couple of articles discuss post flop odds and
probabilities. These are equally interesting to the
NLH player, but they will have less opportunity and
situations to take advantage of this knowledge.
Possibly the most useful probabilities are those surrounding
a flush draw. If you hold two cards of the same suit,
you will flop a made flush slightly less than 1% of
the time. If you are all-in before the flop, the chances
of completing your flush with all five cards are somewhere
around 6%. More useful though is the situation when
you flop four to your flush: two hearts in your hand
with two hearts on the flop, or one heart in your
hand with three on the flop.
Many NLH players will commit their whole stack heads
up in this situation, but the odds say that really
you shouldn't. You will only complete the flush around
35% of the time. So if a player has moved all-in,
in front of you, for a large bet of greater than pot
size, the correct play is probably to pass. You are
not getting good pot odds. You will often see players
making bad calls in this situation. It is of course
different if you move all-in first to speak. You may
only win the pot a third of the time if someone calls,
but of course you may win the pot 50% of the time,
uncontested, if everyone should pass.
In Limit Hold 'em of course, you will rarely win the
pot uncontested, but the pot odds will be different.
In many ways Limit Hold 'em is much more complicated
here. In a $2/$4 game, four players may have seen
the flop. The player in front of you bets $2 on the
flop, and you can easily justify the pot odds as you
are now calling $2 against a $10 pot. However, there
are variables to consider: how much more you may have
to call to see the final two cards, and how much more
can you win if you hit the flush. Firstly, a player
may raise behind you and the original bettor may re-raise.
Now you are risking $6 against $20. The odds aren't
as good but are still favourable. But of course, the
flush may not arrive on the turn, and you may have
to call another $4. Now the risk is $10 against $28,
or possibly $10 against$24 if play becomes heads up.
You are in fact still getting pot odds, but only just.
The second variable is of course when you hit the
flush, how much will you get paid? If the player will
call a $4 bet on the end, or better still, a two bet
situation may emerge, then you are of course reaping
the real benefits of your draw. Flush draw flops are
usually a profitable venture in Limit Hold 'em.
Remembering all these situations and odds isn't as
hard as it initially looks. You will constantly hear
players refer to 'outs'. A flush draw is 9 outs. If
you have an open ended straight draw, you have 8 outs.
Most top players just count their outs, and know the
probabilities of hitting these outs. Next weeks article
will include the 'outs' table and further explanation.
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